Does Opportunism go Unnoticed? A Study of Vote Functions and Policy Preferences

Do voters recognize opportunistic behavior? Do voters punish politicians identified as opportunistic even though their policies are responsible for the economic prosperity of pre-electoral times? If so, how big is the loss of votes related to that punishment? This paper addresses these questions and presents an empirical estimate regarding the voter’s direct response to opportunism. In particular, we present an empirical study of voting behavior where the impact of opportunism on voting results is examined separately from the impact of current economic conditions. Thus, in contrast with most papers available on these issues, we do not ask whether political parties behave opportunistically; instead, we ask whether they receive a direct, electoral punishment or reward when they do. JEL classifications: P16, D72